Book guides

Chapter-by-chapter treatments, in original words, only for the handful of books that reward that depth. The full roster is listed here for reference; one is a worked sample, the rest are planned. Each chapter: the idea, the picture, the money words, a worked example, and where people slip. Study guides, not the books — no affiliation, private use.

The model

The existing Lynch guide — its structure is the template for all the others.

One Up on Wall Street

planned

Peter Lynch

The model guide — its five-part chapter structure (the idea, the picture, the money words, the worked example, where people slip) is the template every other guide here follows.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

Tier 1 — build first

The five that most reward chapter-level depth.

Superforecasting

sample

Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner

How ordinary people make measurably better predictions — by scoring themselves, thinking in probabilities, and updating in small steps. Directly upgrades the journal and the quiz calibration.

1. An optimistic skeptic

The idea
Forecasting can be studied like a skill, not a gift — if you keep score. Most public pundits are never scored, so they never improve.
The picture
A weather forecaster who says '70% chance of rain' and is later checked against how often it actually rained on their 70% days.
Money words
Calibration · resolution · Brier score.
Run the numbers
Composite: rate ten of your own stock 'calls' with a probability, then check them a year later — the gap is your calibration. [illustrative]
Where people slip
Treating a confident story as a forecast. Without a number and a date, there is nothing to score.

2. Illusions of knowledge

The idea
We reach conclusions fast and intuitively, then rationalise. The fix is to slow down and make the intuitive answer earn its place.
The picture
System 1 (fast) blurting an answer; System 2 (slow) auditing it.
Money words
Bait-and-switch · substitution · base rate.
Run the numbers
Composite: 'Will this company grow 30%?' quietly becomes 'Do I like this company?' — a different, easier question. [illustrative]
Where people slip
Answering the easy question you swapped in without noticing.

3. Keeping score

The idea
Vague language ('might', 'could') can never be wrong, so it can never teach you. Numbers and deadlines make forecasts falsifiable — and improvable.
The picture
A ledger of dated, numeric predictions with a column for what actually happened.
Money words
Falsifiability · the promise ledger.
Run the numbers
Composite: 'margins should improve' versus 'EBITDA margin > 18% by Q4' — only the second can be graded. [illustrative]
Where people slip
Hedged words that feel like insight but leave you unaccountable.

Fortune's Formula

planned

William Poundstone

Kelly, Shannon and Thorp as one narrative — the position-sizing foundation, and the most enjoyable book on the whole list.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

What I Learned About Investing from Darwin

planned

Pulak Prasad

The best investing book written by an Indian fund manager. Central rule: avoid permanent loss rather than seek winners, and almost never sell.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

Expectations Investing

planned

Michael Mauboussin & Alfred Rappaport

The formal version of syllabus Part Eight — reading what the price already implies, instead of forecasting the business in isolation.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

A Man for All Markets

planned

Edward Thorp

The blackjack-then-markets memoir of Edward Thorp — also a very good book about how to think.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

Tier 2 — later, if the format is working

Built only once the format proves out.

The Most Important Thing

planned

Howard Marks

Marks on risk, cycles and second-level thinking, distilled from the Oaktree memos.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

Seeking Wisdom

planned

Peter Bevelin

Munger's mental models, organised properly — a map of the biases and models that recur across the syllabus.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

Radical Uncertainty

planned

John Kay & Mervyn King

The mature version of Taleb's argument, without the abrasion — decision-making when the future is genuinely unknowable, not merely risky.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

The Davis Dynasty

planned

John Rothchild

Three generations of compounding — and the finding that structure and behaviour mattered more than stock selection.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

100 Baggers

planned

Christopher Mayer

What the rare hundred-fold winners had in common — reinvestment runway, durable returns, and the patience to hold.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

The (Mis)behavior of Markets

planned

Benoit Mandelbrot

Why the standard risk models understate tail risk — Taleb's intellectual source. Promote to a full guide only if the fractal-markets argument earns chapter depth beyond the 'fat tails' principle.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

Fooled by Randomness

planned

Nassim Taleb

Luck-versus-skill, survivorship, alternative histories. Note: its core ideas already run through the syllabus and the Taleb principles — extract as principles first; build the guide only if it adds argument the modules do not carry.

Chapters not yet authored — listed for reference.

Sample chapters are seed content — independent study guide, private use, not the book, no affiliation. Nothing here is investment advice.