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Judgement & uncertainty

Superforecasting

Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner

Forecasting is a trainable skill if you keep score - put a number and a date on your view and check yourself.

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Chapters

8
  1. Chapter 01Forecasting is a skill, not a giftYou only improve at forecasting if you keep score.Read this chapter →
  2. Chapter 02The two minds that fool youWhen a hard question feels easy, you've quietly swapped it for an easier one.Read this chapter →
  3. Chapter 03Think in probabilities, not wordsA view with no number and no date can never be wrong - so it can never teach you.Read this chapter →
  4. Chapter 04Break the big question downSplit an unanswerable question into small, checkable ones.Read this chapter →
  5. Chapter 05Start with the outside viewAnchor on the base rate before you fall for the vivid story.Read this chapter →
  6. Chapter 06Update in small stepsChange your mind by degrees as evidence arrives, not all-or-nothing.Read this chapter →
  7. Chapter 07Actively seek what proves you wrongTreat your best idea as a hypothesis hunting for its own refutation.Read this chapter →
  8. Chapter 08Keep a forecast journalScore yourself on paper, or you will remember only the wins.Read this chapter →

This is my own plain-English understanding of the book’s ideas, in my own words with my own ₹ examples, laid out against the book’s real chapters so you can relate the two. It is not the book and reproduces none of its text - if it helps, please buy the book. Not affiliated with the author or publisher. The author is not SEBI-registered; nothing here is investment advice.