Thinkers & Behavioural
Philip Tetlock
Forecasting is a trainable skill; calibrate, update, and keep score.
Philip Tetlock is a researcher who spent years studying who predicts the future well, and why. He ran huge, careful tests with thousands of ordinary people and found that forecasting is a learnable skill, not a magic gift. He showed that humble, flexible ‘foxes’ who mix many small ideas beat confident ‘hedgehogs’ who force everything through one big theory. He also proved that keeping an honest written score of your guesses is what turns guessing into real skill. He is a scholar of good thinking, not an investor.
The method
Break big questions into small ones, look at how often similar things happened before, state your confidence as a number, change your view in small steps as new facts arrive, and always check later whether you were right.
The record
A researcher, not an investor - no trading track record. His work is famous for large, long-running forecasting studies (including tournaments of ordinary volunteers) that measured, honestly and over many questions, who guesses the future accurately.
Where they were wrong
Forecasting still fails on true surprises that nobody sees coming. Scores are only trustworthy across many guesses, not one lucky call. Overconfidence quietly sneaks back even in trained forecasters. And markets can move against even a well-reasoned forecast, so good method reduces mistakes without removing them.
Studies
5- Study 01Superforecasting: predicting is a skill you can practiseDo not trust the loudest, surest voice - trust the careful method and the checked record, and practise your own guessing like any other skill.Read this study →
- Study 02Calibration: does your ‘sure’ match how often you’re right?When your ‘70% sure’ really means 70%, your confidence can be trusted - so distrust anyone who says ‘guaranteed’, and keep score to fix your own dial.Read this study →
- Study 03Update your view: change your mind in small stepsWhen a new fact arrives, don’t freeze and don’t leap - nudge your guess a little, again and again, and let the small honest steps add up.Read this study →
- Study 04Fox vs hedgehog: many small ideas beat one big ideaWhen someone explains the whole market with one big, confident idea, be a fox - gather many ideas, welcome doubt.Read this study →
- Study 05Keep score: write predictions down or you’ll fool yourselfNever trust your memory of how good your guesses were - write them down, check them later, and let the honest scorecard tell you the truth.Read this study →
Primary sources
full register →Read Philip Tetlock in their own words. We reproduce none of it - these are the real things to go to.
Superforecastingbook
Draws on a long forecasting tournament to show that prediction is a trainable skill built on probabilities, base rates and keeping score. - available wherever books are sold - please buy the book