judgement
Actively open-minded
The rule
Treat each belief as a guess to be tested. Go looking on purpose for the facts that would prove you wrong.
Where it flips
But endlessly hunting for doubt can stop you ever acting. The fix is to search hard for facts against you, then still commit once that evidence has had a fair hearing.
Most people defend what they already believe. A good forecaster attacks it. This means going out of your way to find the strongest case against your view, welcoming the fact that disproves you, and changing your mind when it earns changing. It is the opposite of only seeing what you want to see, and one of the best signs someone gets the future right.
A worked example
Before buying, Aayra writes down three things that would prove her wrong, then goes hunting for them, reading the bearish report first. She finds one is true, so she passes. The habit of seeking disproof saved her money. [illustrative]
How to spot it
- ·the case against sought on purpose
- ·the fact that disproves you welcomed
- ·mind changed when the evidence earns it
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner · Superforecasting