judgement
The question swap
The rule
When a hard question suddenly feels easy, your quick mind has swapped it for an easier one. Catch the swap, and answer the real question.
Where it flips
Too much suspicion can freeze you on simple questions that really are simple. The fix is to check for the swap only on the hard, important calls. Do not distrust every quick answer.
You are asked something hard, like "will this company do well over ten years?" Your lazy mind quietly answers an easier question instead, like "do I like this company?" Then it hands you that answer, dressed up as the real one. The fix is simple. When a hard question feels surprisingly easy, stop. Drag yourself back to the actual question you were asked.
A worked example
Asked "is this a good buy at this price?", Rohan actually answers "is this a famous, exciting company?" and buys. The easy question felt like the hard one. Naming the swap would have sent him back to the price. [illustrative]
How to spot it
- ·a hard question that feels easy
- ·an answer about liking, not about odds
- ·the real question quietly replaced
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner · Superforecasting