expectations
Competition fades returns
The rule
High returns pull in rivals who drag them back toward average. A valuation that assumes they last forever is usually wrong.
Where it flips
But a few businesses do hold high returns for a long time behind a real moat, a lasting protection from rivals. So assuming an instant fade can undervalue them just as badly. The task is to judge how durable the advantage is, not to assume every return fades on a fixed timetable.
Unusually high returns on capital attract rivals, and rivals compete the extra away over time. A valuation that carries today's fat returns unchanged for decades is really betting that rivals will politely stay away. The honest question is: how long can the advantage truly hold, and why?
A worked example
A retailer earns thirty percent on capital, and the price assumes it forever. The reader asks what stops a rival from opening the same stores. If the answer is only 'nothing yet', the fade should be built into the value, not wished away. [illustrative]
How to spot it
- ·high returns on capital carried flat for decades
- ·no stated reason rivals cannot copy the business
- ·the moat claimed rather than described
Michael Mauboussin · Expectations Investing