judgement
Be a fox, not a hedgehog
The rule
A fox holds many small, self-doubting ideas and adapts. A hedgehog forces everything through one big confident theory. The fox wins.
Where it flips
But fox-like openness can slide into having no real view at all. The fix is to hold many angles yet still commit to a clear judgement. Flexible, not spineless.
The hedgehog knows one big thing and explains the whole world through it, loudly and confidently. It forecasts poorly, because reality does not fit one theory. The fox knows many small things, borrows from several views, doubts itself, and updates. It forecasts far better. In markets, beware the expert with one grand story for everything.
A worked example
A hedgehog insists "interest rates decide everything" and bets the whole portfolio on that one call. A fox weighs rates, earnings, mood and prices, holds each loosely, and adjusts as facts arrive. The fox is wrong far less often. [illustrative]
How to spot it
- ·one big theory explaining everything
- ·loud confidence, no self-doubt
- ·no changing view when the facts change
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner · Superforecasting