temperament
Quiet Conviction
The rule
Keep your stock views to yourself. Once you shout 'sure winner' to everyone, your pride, not the facts, decides when you sell.
Where it flips
Too far the other way, staying silent can mean you never test your view against people who might spot the flaw you missed. The fix: share your reasoning to invite pushback, but keep the loud promises and price targets to yourself.
The moment you loudly tell everyone 'this stock is a sure winner', your pride gets tied to being right. Then the numbers turn, or the story breaks. Now admitting the mistake feels like losing face. So you hold on, long after it makes sense. Keep your view quiet instead, a note to yourself, not a public flag. Then you can exit or change your mind cleanly when the facts demand it. You want to be free to be wrong cheaply. A loud boast makes being wrong very costly.
A worked example
For months Aman told his WhatsApp group a stock was a 'guaranteed double' at ₹450. When results cracked and it fell to ₹300, he refused to sell rather than admit it to the group. He rode it down to ₹160. [illustrative]
How to spot it
- ·You have publicly promised a stock will rise
- ·Selling would mean admitting it to an audience
- ·You argue harder for a view after posting it than before
Michael Batnick · Big Mistakes