judgement
Think in probabilities
The rule
Say your beliefs as numbers, like "a 70% chance." Not soft words like "likely." A number you can check later; a word you cannot.
Where it flips
A made-up number can look more scientific than it is. The fix is to treat the number as an honest guess you will update. It is a number you own, not a number that owns you.
Words like "might" or "maybe" hide how sure you really are. Two people can hear the same word and picture very different odds. Putting a number on it forces you to be honest. It also lets you check the call later. And it breaks the childish idea that the future is a simple yes or no. Getting used to "maybe, and here is how much" is the first tool of good guessing.
A worked example
"The stock will probably recover" tells you nothing. "I think a 65% chance it recovers within a year" can be written down, sized, and later scored. It also forces Arjun to admit how sure he really is. [illustrative]
How to spot it
- ·vague words instead of numbers
- ·the future framed as yes/no
- ·no way to grade the call later
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner · Superforecasting