Home › Reading the Cycle Reading the Cycle The right business at the wrong time still loses. Rates, the rupee, inflation, crude, the Budget and trade deals — read for how each reaches a company, never to predict the market. Position for the cycle; don't trade it.
Inverts: a rate cut isn't automatically bullish; a weak rupee is a windfall and a wound; a trade deal is priced on announcement, not delivery.
Outline preview — 10 parts · 49 modules. This Reading is not written yet; the structure below is the plan. “Reading a Company” is the one live Reading today.
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▶ 1. The machine and the method5 ch Why macro is mostly a trap · The transmission chain · The economy is not the market · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 1–5 ▶ 2. The price of money5 ch Interest rates, the master price · The RBI and the MPC · Liquidity, the tide under all boats · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 6–10 ▶ 3. Inflation4 ch CPI, WPI and core · Real versus nominal · Inflation and margins — the inversion · +1 more 4 chapters · Ch 11–14 ▶ 4. The rupee4 ch What moves the rupee · Exporters versus importers · Forex debt and the hidden hit · +1 more 4 chapters · Ch 15–18 ▶ 5. Growth and the cycle6 ch GDP, IIP and the official growth picture · PMI and the high-frequency dashboard · The monsoon and rural demand · +3 more 6 chapters · Ch 19–24 ▶ 6. Commodities and the terms of trade4 ch Crude oil — India's master price · Crude across sectors — the inversion · Metals and the input-cost chain · +1 more 4 chapters · Ch 25–28 ▶ 7. The government5 ch The fiscal deficit · Reading the Union Budget · Government capex and the order book · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 29–33 ▶ 8. Trade and the world5 ch Trade policy, tariffs and non-tariff barriers · Free-trade agreements — the UK–India FTA and textiles · The Fed, the dollar and US yields · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 34–38 ▶ 9. Bubbles, crashes and sentiment5 ch Anatomy of a mania · “This time is different” · Crashes and how to behave — a short Indian history · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 39–43 ▶ 10. Reading the data honestly, and putting it together6 ch The release calendar and revisions · Seasonality, base effects and real-vs-nominal · Manufactured and massaged macro · +3 more 6 chapters · Ch 44–49