Home › Reading the Cycle 10 parts · 49 modules · 49 ready
Reading the Cycle The macro weather - rates, the rupee, inflation, crude, the Budget and trade - read for how each reaches a company, never to predict the market. Position for the cycle; don't trade it.
Expand all
▶ 1. The machine and the method5 / 5 ready How a macro variable actually reaches a company - the transmission chain, and what a number can never tell you. Why macro is mostly a trap · The transmission chain · The economy is not the market · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 1–5 · 5 ready ▶ 2. The price of money5 / 5 ready Interest rates as the master price - the RBI, liquidity, the curve, and the same cut that helps one sector and squeezes another. Interest rates, the master price · The RBI and the MPC · Liquidity, the tide under all boats · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 6–10 · 5 ready ▶ 3. Inflation4 / 4 ready What CPI, WPI and core measure, real vs nominal, and why the same inflation print is three verdicts across sectors. CPI, WPI and core · Real versus nominal · Inflation and margins - the inversion · +1 more 4 chapters · Ch 11–14 · 4 ready ▶ 4. The rupee4 / 4 ready What moves the currency, the cleanest inversion in macro, and the forex exposure that hides in the notes. What moves the rupee · Exporters versus importers · Forex debt and the hidden hit · +1 more 4 chapters · Ch 15–18 · 4 ready ▶ 5. Growth and the cycle6 / 6 ready The official growth picture, the high-frequency pulse, the monsoon, and how each phase of the cycle hits earnings. GDP, IIP and the official growth picture · PMI and the high-frequency dashboard · The monsoon and rural demand · +3 more 6 chapters · Ch 19–24 · 6 ready ▶ 6. Commodities and the terms of trade4 / 4 ready Crude as India's master price, the same rally as a producer's windfall and a converter's squeeze, and the glut cycle. Crude oil - India's master price · Crude across sectors - the inversion · Metals and the input-cost chain · +1 more 4 chapters · Ch 25–28 · 4 ready ▶ 7. The government5 / 5 ready The fiscal deficit, reading the Budget past the theatre, capex order books, subsidies, and the promise ledger on PLI. The fiscal deficit · Reading the Union Budget · Government capex and the order book · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 29–33 · 5 ready ▶ 8. Trade and the world5 / 5 ready Tariffs, a trade deal that re-rates a sector overnight, the Fed and the dollar, foreign flows, and global cycles India must read. Trade policy, tariffs and non-tariff barriers · Free-trade agreements - the UK–India FTA and textiles · The Fed, the dollar and US yields · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 34–38 · 5 ready ▶ 9. Bubbles, crashes and sentiment5 / 5 ready The anatomy of a mania, the costliest four words, how to behave in a crash, and reading sentiment as a thermometer not a signal. Anatomy of a mania · "This time is different" · Crashes and how to behave - a short Indian history · +2 more 5 chapters · Ch 39–43 · 5 ready ▶ 10. Reading the data honestly, and putting it together6 / 6 ready The macro number is itself a claim - revisions, base effects, massaged series - assembled into one honest one-page read. The release calendar and revisions · Seasonality, base effects and real-vs-nominal · Manufactured and massaged macro · +3 more 6 chapters · Ch 44–49 · 6 ready